By Kunal Satyarthi, Krishna AchutaRao, Mariam Zachariah, Mihir R. Bhatt and Khayal Trivedi

Some futures are far more unknown than others. Perhaps the future of heatwaves in South Asia is one such future. HOISA has been critically observing what makes heatwaves in South Asia different, how it is prone to more such events, and the attempt to judge a heat wave index for South Asia. A recent panel discussion looked at the Future of Heatwaves in South Asia in a world that is 1.5 to 2°C warmer.

The IPCC AR6 2021 report predicts that as global temperature increases, we will witness an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme. These events could become 30 times more likely with the already 1.2°C warmer climate. Calculated through hazard attribution, this will additionally increase 8 times in a 2°C warmer world. Studies also show that regions with high humidity and high temperatures will particularly be high-risk areas, as we see that heat index (a combination of temperature and humidity) increasing by 2 degrees. This can and will be deadly, as we expect heatwaves to be longer in duration (40+ days).

AIDMI’s work on heatwave shows that the affected population numbers and their diversity in terms of socio-economic and occupational context is increasing in all communities. The measures taken by the community members on their own, out-number almost all other public measures at individual and community levels. This calls for an immediate implementation of short-term, mid-term and long-term actions.

While much needs to be done, a lot has been achieved or is underway thanks to various agencies in the region—such as the NDMA (India), and similar counterparts in South Asia. National guidelines for preparedness, developing a national framework on heatwave preparedness and mitigation, Heat Actions Plans at the city and state level, a national plan on heat-related illness and much more are coming up. In India, we are already witnessing the outcomes of these efforts. The mortality rate has drastically reduced in the past years. Over 17 heat waves-prone states have prepared heat wave action plans and 14 states are preparing.

We are also observing similar efforts in South Asia. In Pakistan, an anticipatory response fund by the Start network is conducting training in preparedness and cooling. Cooling action plans are underway, and frontline workers are being trained. In Bangladesh, a Chief Heat Officer has been appointed in Dhaka, and Heat Action Plans are underway in several municipalities along with other pilot projects.

But while this work is being carried out, there are many challenges for policymakers. Firstly, heat waves affect differently to different groups differently which may be defined by age, economics, and urban or rural location. Secondly, there are scientific gaps in measuring the local thresholds and interplay of other meteorological parameters – velocity and humidity within different ecological zones. Thirdly, addressing deaths and damage needs more nuanced consideration in South Asia. Reading into the multiple causes of death and thereby formalising it into data is also very challenging. AIDMI calls it the “intersectionality of heatwave deaths” in its work on heatwaves.

As a way forward, we must observe heat waves better and study how they are linked to forest fires, drought, and other calamities. We need to develop a loss and damage framework for South Asia that is more context-specific. Data collection and analysis for evidence-based policy is required by authorities in South Asia. This situation calls for constant, ongoing anticipation of how the situation is evolving to ensure that we adapt to this human-induced climatic phenomenon that will affect over 2 billion people.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.