By Dennis Mombauer and Marek Szilvasi, SLYCAN Trust, Sri Lanka and Germany

While over the last few years the climate change and human mobility community has primarily focused on the UNFCCC loss and damage (L&D) workstreams, the recent decision under the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) presents a significant opportunity for integrating human mobility into the adaptation pillar of the global climate action agenda.

Climate-induced Human Mobility in the GGA

Adaptation negotiations continued to be technical at COP29 and to some extent shielded from current geopolitical tensions. Although discussions on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and the Adaptation Committee were not concluded, the process of operationalizing the GGA under the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience and the UAE-Belém work programme resulted in a decision that provides further direction for developing indicators for the GGA’s seven thematic and four-dimensional targets.

In Para 21/d, the decision text emphasizes that the final outcome of the UAE–Belém work programme should also include indicators that capture information pertaining to migrants as a specific climate-vulnerable group. As the decision does not specify against which target such migration-relevant indicators should be tracked, they could be seen as relevant for all thematic and dimensional targets. Moreover, the text refers to migration in association with vulnerability – a crucial concept, as the main GGA objective is to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability to climate change. This makes human mobility an integral and ambitious focus for assessing climate adaptation progress.

There are other clear technical linkages between climate-related human mobility and the thematic targets of the GGA Framework. For example, climate impacts on food systems and livelihoods are often strongly connected to rural-urban migration; ensuring continuity of healthcare and preventing health hazards is a key challenge in situations of displacement; and adaptation investments in human settlements and infrastructure are important for both origin and destination areas. Furthermore, the dimensional targets also offer entry points for connecting the GGA to human mobility, such as through disaggregated data collection, migration-specific vulnerability assessments, or the mainstreaming of mobility into monitoring and evaluation systems.

However, it remains uncertain whether the three main forms of climate-related human mobility—migration, disaster displacement, and planned relocation—will be monitored under the GGA, and what form such monitoring would take.

Climate-induced Human Mobility in NAPs

As highlighted in the COP29/CMA6 decision on the GGA (para 16), NAPs are “one of the important channels via which the targets […] could be achieved.” New research conducted by SLYCAN Trust indicates that out of 60 NAPs submitted by developing country Parties, the vast majority (83%) reference climate-related human mobility, with almost two-thirds (63%) also containing concrete provisions or actions to address migration, displacement, and/or planned relocation. Climate mobility considerations are also well incorporated into the localization provisions of submitted NAPs, their existing sectoral and other subnational development and adaptation plans.

However, there is a considerable range of perspectives on mobility, with some Parties aiming to prevent mobility responses to climate change, others trying to better manage ongoing movements, and yet others recognising mobility as an adaptation strategy in itself.

Enhancing data availability, closing knowledge gaps, strengthening anticipatory planning, and building a more robust and coherent enabling environment are among the key challenges faced by countries in addressing human mobility through all stages of their NAP process. In particular, there is an opportunity to mainstream mobility not just into the NAP document but also into relevant implementation structures, particularly those at the subnational level which can address specific local or regional contexts in a more differentiated way.

Conclusion/Recommendations

The often informal or transboundary nature of human mobility offers a unique perspective for contributing to the climate adaptation agenda. Going forward, the GGA indicator framework should integrate mobility-related metrics to help track transboundary risks and elements of adaptation using established tools and databases from the human mobility community.

Moreover, climate-induced human mobility should be further integrated in the NAPs. Our research shows that this integration has happened already, but, as the cornerstones of national adaptation planning, NAPs will remain the key platform for including climate-related human mobility in climate change adaptation through a dedicated, iterative policy cycle. To avoid imposing additional reporting burdens on Parties and utilize existing data collection and monitoring processes, NAPs will be the most efficient way to operationalize human mobility considerations and ensure evidence-based and context-specific interventions at the local and national levels.

However, for climate-related human mobility to be considered a successful adaptation strategy, it must ensure livelihood and economic opportunities, protection for those on the move, and the preservation of traditional practices, cultural heritage, and community networks. Moreover, inadequate funding and no substantial commitments for adaptation under the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) pose significant challenges that must be addressed.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.