By Cyrille Honoré, Director of Disaster Risk Reduction and Public Services Branch, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been a leader in tropical cyclone monitoring and early warning services since its establishment in 1875. Recognising the severe impact of tropical cyclones on the coastal areas surrounding the North Indian Ocean, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) jointly established the Panel on Tropical Cyclones (WMO/ESCAP PTC) in 1972 as an intergovernmental body. Since 1988, IMD has served as a WMO Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclones, providing forecasts and advisories to the 13 member countries of the PTC. Over the years, it has strengthened its capabilities through cutting-edge technology, global collaborations, and innovative forecasting techniques, enhancing early warning systems and reducing the impacts of cyclones.

Key Achievements

IMD’s cyclone warning services date back to 1875, making it one of the world’s oldest systems. The establishment of RSMC in 1988 strengthened IMD’s role in issuing tropical weather outlooks, track forecasts, and storm surge warnings. Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), including Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS), have improved cyclone track, intensity, and landfall forecasts. The lead time for cyclogenesis forecasts has extended to seven days, while landfall prediction errors have been reduced to less than 20 km in 24-hour forecasts.

IMD employs INSAT, HIMAWARI, and GOES satellites for real-time cyclone monitoring, rainfall estimation, and cloud motion analysis. The deployment of Doppler Weather Radars along the coastline enhances cyclone tracking, particularly for rapid intensification and recurvature.

Since Cyclone Phailin (2013), IMD has implemented impact-based forecasting, integrating hazard exposure and vulnerability assessments. Tools like Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) visualise storm impacts, aiding disaster preparedness. IMD has also developed a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), incorporating storm surge guidance, extreme rainfall alerts, and marine warnings for coastal cities.

Through training workshops and technology transfers, it enhances forecasting capacity across WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) member countries, ensuring a coordinated regional response. IMD and the WMO Regional Centre New Delhi are actively engaged in the WMO Coordination Mechanism aiming at providing Humanitarian Agencies with fit-to-purpose meteorological information.

Agenda for the Future

IMD aims to expand its Doppler Weather Radar system, deploy Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for direct cyclone observations, and strengthen ocean-based monitoring with additional buoys and satellites to improve tracking accuracy.

To further enhance forecasts, IMD is integrating AI and machine learning into prediction models, improving the detection of rapid intensification and recurvature scenarios. The introduction of probabilistic forecasting will better represent uncertainties, aiding disaster management decisions.

Strengthening last-mile connectivity is a priority. IMD is expanding multi-language, impact-based warning dissemination, ensuring communities receive timely, actionable information via mobile networks, social media, and GIS-based platforms. Community-based resilience programmes will support vulnerable populations with localised preparedness strategies.

IMD also plans to establish a Tropical Cyclone Research Test Bed in India, advancing research on cyclone dynamics and refining forecasting techniques. Regional capacity-building initiatives will continue, strengthening cooperation for cyclone risk reduction.

Recognising climate change’s impact on cyclone intensity and frequency, IMD is developing climate-resilient forecasting systems and integrating coastal vulnerability assessments into disaster management planning. The department is also promoting nature-based solutions, such as mangrove restoration, to mitigate cyclone impacts.

Conclusion

IMD’s leadership in tropical cyclone forecasting has significantly reduced casualties and economic losses in the North Indian Ocean. Its Vision 2035 aims for zero loss of life and minimal property damage through technological advancements, regional cooperation, and enhanced community engagement. By leveraging next-generation forecasting techniques and strengthening disaster preparedness, IMD remains committed to a weather-ready and climate-resilient future for India and the region.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.