By Pankaj Agarwal, Secretary, Ministry of Power, Government of India

India’s power grid, recognised as the world’s largest synchronous national grid, is the backbone of the nation’s economic progress. However, its complexity and increasing reliance on weather-dependent load and renewable energy sources make it highly vulnerable to meteorological extremes. In recent years, India has faced an extreme rise in temperatures, including March-April 2022, February 2023 and February 2024, each recording the highest maximum temperatures in 122 years. August 2023 also set a record for the highest average temperature over the same period. These heatwave or exceptionally high temperature conditions have increased electricity demand for cooling, pushing the grid to a peak demand of 250 GW and a daily usage high of 5466 million units (GWh).

These conditions tested the resilience of conventional power plants and transmission systems while also complicating the integration of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, which are influenced by fluctuating weather patterns. Additionally, higher agricultural electricity demand, with farmers relying more on electric pumps and irrigation systems due to water scarcity, further increased stress on the power system.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has played a crucial role in addressing these challenges. By providing detailed forecasts on temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind patterns, IMD has enabled utilities to anticipate and prepare for spikes in electricity demand. During the 2022 heatwave, IMD’s timely forecasts helped utilities implement measures to prevent major power disruptions. In 2023 and 2024, advanced weather predictions supported more rigorous planning for resource adequacy before the peak summer period, ensuring stable grid operations and effective balancing of supply and demand. IMD’s specialised forecasts for solar and wind energy generation have also helped utilities optimise power supply strategies during extreme weather conditions. IMD is now providing weather forecast data at a high grid resolution of 12×12 km, compared to the earlier 25×25 km grid size. IMD is also working to increase grid resolution to 6×6 km. The forecast frequency has been increased to four times a day instead of once daily as earlier, and IMD is working further to provide the weather updates on an hourly frequency. IMD’s collaboration with power sector stakeholders has been transformative, delivering detailed weather insights such as temperature projections, wind patterns and solar radiation estimates that enhance decision-making.

Short-range (up to a week), medium-range (3-6 months), and long-range forecasts (beyond a year) have become essential for strategic and operational planning, particularly as renewable penetration grows in the country. Short range is important for unit commitment viz. keeping sufficient thermal units in service while medium range forecasts are crucial for maintenance planning of the coal fleet. The long-range forecasts are useful for capacity expansion exercises considering that each weather year is different. As the forecast errors increase for any time horizon beyond a week, it is important to see how we can use Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools for a better forecast.

India’s diverse climatic conditions make it highly susceptible to extreme weather events such as severe heatwaves, cold waves, and cyclones, all of which significantly impact electricity demand and power system infrastructure. Accurate and precise weather forecasting, along with early warning systems, is essential to mitigate these challenges. IMD’s continuous advancements in forecasting technologies and its efforts to enhance the dissemination of weather information to key stakeholders, including the power sector, are becoming increasingly critical. As India’s energy demand grows alongside its economic expansion, further strengthening lMD’s forecasting capabilities will play a vital role in ensuring a stable and resilient power supply while safeguarding the grid against the escalating risks posed by extreme weather conditions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.