By Khayal Trivedi, HOISA, India

South Asia’s extensive and densely populated coastline places it among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. From the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea, this vast region has historically weathered countless cyclones and tropical storms. While these communities have developed a certain natural resilience over time, escalating climate impacts—driven by global warming, rising sea surface temperatures, and coastal degradation—now demand a renewed focus on risk management and resilience building.

The last two decades alone have seen major cyclones like Odisha (1999), Nargis (2008), Amphan (2020), Tauktae (2021), and Biparjoy (2023). These events underscore the devastating consequences of insufficient preparation and the growing intensity of storms. The 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone resulted in 15,000 deaths and caused damages of over $4.4 billion. Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008, claimed more than 130,000 lives and inflicted an economic toll of around $13 billion. While mortality rates during such events have decreased due to improved disaster preparedness and international cooperation, the scale and complexity of recent cyclones show that South Asia’s coastal systems remain at risk.

A particularly concerning development is the warming of the Arabian Sea, which is now producing stronger and more frequent cyclones. Once known for its relatively cooler waters, the Arabian Sea saw Cyclone Biparjoy become the longest-lived cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, lasting 11 days—three times longer than the historical average. Cyclone Tauktae intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 4 cyclone in less than 24 hours. Such rapid intensification, fueled by rising sea surface temperatures and high ocean heat content, gives communities and emergency systems little time to prepare and respond.

In the face of these challenges, the concept of coastal resilience becomes critical—not only the capacity to withstand storms but to adapt and recover from them. Enhancing resilience involves collaborative action across scientific, governmental, and community levels. Effective resilience-building strategies must include the voices of the most affected: fisherfolk, women, informal settlers, and youth. When community members are involved in designing and implementing policies, the outcomes are more sustainable and better aligned with local needs.

Data-driven tools like the INFLOWS model—which integrates information on urban infrastructure and population distribution to forecast inundation areas—are vital for improving early warning and evacuation planning. Similarly, the National Shoreline Assessment System in India is helping track shoreline changes using satellite imagery, identifying vulnerable zones and informing adaptive management.

To manage coastal risks effectively, countries are also adopting diverse physical adaptation strategies. These include Managed Realignment, where new inland defences are identified; Move Seaward, which involves strengthening sea-facing defences; and Limited Interventions, such as reinforcing existing barriers or modifying land use practices. Selecting the right approach depends on the ecological, economic, and social context of each community.

However, no strategy can succeed without addressing social equity. Disasters disproportionately affect the poor, women, children, and people with disabilities—groups often excluded from planning processes. Resilience must mean more than survival; it must include empowerment, dignity, and the ability to shape one’s future in the face of uncertainty.

As climate projections forecast more frequent and severe cyclones in South Asia, a regional and inclusive approach is imperative. Climate-induced disasters know no borders; therefore, shared learning, joint action, and resource pooling are essential. By combining top-down policies with bottom-up innovations, South Asia can forge a more equitable and resilient coastal future—one shaped not only by data and infrastructure, but also by community wisdom, solidarity, and adaptive strength.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.