By Hariprasad VM, Doctoral Candidate, IIT Bombay, India

The Wayanad district experienced the biggest landslides in the history of Kerala on July 30, 2024, a disaster that highlights the devastating impact of extreme climate events (Rajendran, 2024). The high-intensity rainfall that triggered this landslide is becoming increasingly common due to the accelerating effects of climate change, and it warrants a much more effective disaster response. The majority of the victims were socially and economically marginalised, including private tea estate workers and their families, many of whom lost their lives or were severely injured (Express News Service, 2024)

Experts suggest that similar incidents could occur every fifty years, given the 1.3-degree increase in global temperature (World Weather Attribution, 2024). Despite the increasing risk and acknowledging the risk over the years by the state government, anticipation and preparedness in Wayanad were noticeably inadequate (Kumar, 2023). Early warning systems, relocation plans, lessons from past experiences, and local observations, including those from tribal communities, were either ignored or inadequately addressed. This failure to act on available information and warnings led to catastrophic consequences.

Challenges of Anticipatory Action

Kerala has become the epicentre of landslides in India. From 2015 to 2022, Kerala accounted for 59.2 per cent of all reported landslides in the country, underscoring the state’s acute vulnerability to this natural hazard (Business Today Desk, 2024). However, Kerala’s ongoing financial crisis would make it difficult for the state to invest in disaster management (Livemint, 2023). In the absence of adequate resources, investing in a low-cost, localised early warning system with the highest accuracy should be an immediate priority. The challenge lies in selecting the most effective anticipatory actions and taking the help of local-level agencies.

Science and technology will continue to improve, and future advancements may help society better manage climate risks. However, the slow pace of fixing an early warning system for landslides by the state and union governments, along with not accurately predicting rainfall led to this disaster (Unnikrishnan, 2024; Surya, 2024). While the union government says that the early warning was given to the state on time, the chief minister countered the argument (Perinchery, 2024). Although government agencies like the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) or Geological Survey of India (GSI) did not issue red alerts for rainfall or landslides, reports from Wayanad indicate that the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology located in Wayanad had warned the district administration about a potential landslide in Mundakkai and surrounding areas 16 hours before the event (Unnikrishnan, 2024; Abraham, 2024).

In India, disaster warnings are not typically based on predictions from local agencies alone due to the lack of standardised protocols and credibility issues. For example, while local knowledge and data, such as rainfall measurements by local organisations, are valuable, official disaster warnings often rely on centralised government agencies like the IMD (IMD n.d). This centralised approach is as per the standard operating procedure and to provide consistency and reliability in data and the government’s mandate to issue such warnings (ibid). This highlights a significant issue in our disaster governance, where local insights are often undervalued in the decision-making process.

Need for Convergence of Different Disciplines

Anticipatory action in disaster management is a forward-thinking approach designed to mitigate impacts before a disaster occurs (Haque and Schneider, 2024). Yet, various disciplines, such as geology, hydrology, ecology, and soil conservation, often fail to collaborate effectively. Each discipline uses different parameters and has its perspective, making it difficult to develop a comprehensive early warning system. According to the World Disaster Report 2020, landslides can be categorised as either geophysical or hydro-meteorological events (IFRC, 2020). So, developing a localised early warning system requires input from all relevant disciplines and local communities.

In 2019, a symposium on landslides in Kerala was held in Munnar, where experts discussed possible ways to prevent landslides, focusing on low-cost warning systems and comprehensive data on landslides in the state. Despite previous discussions, GSI launched its first regional early warning system for rain-induced landslides on July 19, 2024, just two weeks before the Wayanad incident, but errors in the modelled data resulted in the system’s failure to accurately predict the landslide (DTE Staff, 2024).

Long-term Structural and Non-Structural Solutions

Kerala’s disaster preparedness should include long-term mitigation and adaptation plans rather than merely relocating residents to relief camps each year. The state needs land use based structural measures, and the immediate changes or reversals are required to conserve the risky terrains. Chenan, who belongs to the Indigenous Adivasi community, regularly walks through the areas affected by the landslide. He observed cracks and gaps in the land and informed some officials a few months ago (News Malayalam, 2024). This highlights the need to incorporate community knowledge and experience into the mitigation and preparedness efforts.

Reflecting on the 2013 Uttarakhand flood, which claimed over 6,000 lives, geologist K.S. Valdiya described the disaster as “man-made” and attributed it to the “criminal oversight” of the state’s geological features and water channels over several decades (Bhattacharya, 2013). We must not overlook the lives of people living in difficult terrains, and future incidents should not be attributed solely to extreme weather events.

In conclusion, investing in long-term resilience projects—both structural and non-structural—by utilising local data is essential for timely action. This approach requires dedicated transdisciplinary expertise teams in each district to develop long-term strategies, integrate local knowledge, improve anticipation, and effectively respond to such events. g

References:

1. Abraham, R. (31 July, 2024). Hume Centre had alerted Wayanad district administration at least 16 hours ahead of landslide. The New Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2024/Jul/31/hume-centre-had-alerted-wayanad-district-administration-at-least-16-hours-ahead-of-landslide.
2. (June 26, 2013). Geologists explains why Uttarakhand tragedy was man-made. The Times of India. Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/geologist-explains-why-uttarakhand-tragedy-was-man-made/articleshow/20780742.cms
3. Business Today Desk. (July 30, 2024). Wayanad tragedy: How three devastating landslides took a district in Kerala down in just four hours. Business Today Desk. Retrieved from https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/wayanad-tragedy-how-three-devastating-landslides-took-a-district-in-kerala-down-in-just-four-hours-439455-2024-07-30
4. DTE Staff. (2024). Early Warning System for extreme weather landslides in India. DownToEarth. Retrieved from https://www.downtoearth.org.in/natural-disasters/early-warning-system-for-extreme-weather-landslides-in-india
5. Express News Service. (August 1, 2024). Chooralmala estate lanes worst hit by twin landslides in Wayanad. The New Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2024/Aug/01/chooralmala-estate-lanes-worst-hit-by-twin-landslides-in-wayanad#:~:text=WAYANAD%3A%20Tea%2Dplantation%20workers%20who,the%20region%20early%20in%20Tuesday
6. Haque, A., and Schneider, S. (June 28, 2024). Anticipatory action in disaster management: insights from the 2nd Divisional Dialogue Platform in Bangladesh. Anticipation Hub. Retrieved from https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/anticipatory-action-in-disaster-management-insights-from-the-2nd-divisional-dialogue-platform-in-bangladesh#:~:text=Anticipatory%20action%20in%20disaster%20management%20is%20a%20forward%2Dthinking%20approach,a%20disaster%20before%20they%20occur.
7. (2020). World Disaster Report: Come Heat or High Water. https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/20201116_WorldDisasters_Full.pdf
8. Inida Meteriological Department. (n.d). Standard Operating Procedure Hydrometereological Services in India. Ministry of Earth science. Retrieved from https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/pdf/hydrology_sop.pdf
9. Kumar, A. J. (August 9, 2023). Kerala forms climate change adaptation mission. Times of India. Retrieved from Livemint. (November 1, 2023). ’Kerala facing huge financial crisis’: State tells HC as Keraleeyam fest kickstarts to showcase state’s progress. Mint. Retrieved from https://www.livemint.com/news/india/kerala-passing-through-huge-financial-crisis-state-govt-tells-hc-11698853001591.html
10. News Malayalam, (August 8, 2024). Ethu Duranthathinum Prakruthi oru Driksakshiyeyenkilum karuthivekkum [Online Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13wir8YyYWg&t=30s
11. Perinchery, A. (July 31, 2024). Kerala CM Contests Amit Shah’s Claim That His State Was Warned of Heavy Rain Week Before Landslides. The Wire. Retrieved from https://thewire.in/environment/pinarayi-vijayan-amit-shah-kerala-landslide-warning
12. Rajendra, C.P. (August 9, 2024). [Commentary] on the trail of the Wayanad landslide. Mongabay. https://india.mongabay.com/2024/08/commentary-on-the-trail-of-the-wayanad-landslide/#:~:text=The%20landslide%20in%20Wayanad%20is,Relations%20Department%20Government%20of%20Kerala.
13. Surya, J. (July 31, 2024). Wayanad’s tragic landslides reveal gaps in weather prediction systems. The News minute. Retrieved from https://www.thenewsminute.com/kerala/wayanads-tragic-landslides-reveal-gaps-in-weather-prediction-systems#:~:text=%22Only%20an%20orange%20alert%20was,was%20much%20higher%20than%20predicted.
14. World Weather Attribution. (August 14, 2024). Landslide triggering rainfall made more intense by human-induced climate change, devastating highly vulnerable communities in northern Kerala. Retrieved from https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/landslide-triggering-rainfall-made-more-intense-by-human-induced-climate-change-devastating-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-northern-kerala/
15. Unnikrishnan, S. (July 31, 2024). Early warning system for natural disaster fails Wayanad. The New Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2024/Jul/31/early-warning-system-for-natural-disaster-fails-wayanad#:~:text=The%20system%2C%20which%20utilises%20artificial,ongoing%20refinements%20and%20accuracy%20improvements.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.