By Ankit Rathod, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, India

The world witnessed a breaching of thresholds of all the climate indicators in the year 2023. The year was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12⁰C above the pre-industrial average (WMO, 2024). Consequentially, Heat waves have caused severe impacts across the globe. The extreme climate events have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis with 339 million people in need of Humanitarian Aid. The deaths from extreme heat events are projected to be comparable to the magnitude of all cancers or infectious diseases (GHO, 2024).

Asia witnessed a mean temperature of 0.91⁰C above the 1991-2020 reference period. Further, the Asia Pacific remained the most disaster-impacted region in 2023 with the increasing impact of heatwaves. It is to be noted that these impacts were disproportionate to the differentially vulnerable people in the region (WMO, 2024). A major and prolonged heatwave affected much of Southeast Asia in April and May, extending as far west as Bangladesh and eastern India, and north to southern China. The most exceptional temperatures occurred in Thailand (44.6 ⁰C), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (43.5 ⁰C), and Vietnam (44.2 ⁰C) (ibid).

The trends of the population being affected by extreme temperature events coupled with the development in the field of Early Warnings, forecasts and risk information has resulted in increasing trends of Anticipatory Actions in the region (APTWGAA, 2023). With countries developing their own heat index and correlating to the vulnerability maps to monitor the impact of heat on the people, numerous early heat action plans are developed and designed contextualising the needs of the country. Very few early warning systems in South Asia confirm the need for better resource allocation to prioritise and combat heat-related impacts through preparedness and early actions (Kotharkar, 2021).

The collaboration of IFRC along with other international organisations and local governments has upscaled the forecast-based Financing to developing and implement customised local-level Early Action Plans. They have advocated for synergies between the departments of government viz: The meteorological, social welfare, finance, and disaster management along with other relevant departments to implement the Heatwave early action plans. In the Asia Pacific region, Australia through the Department of Health at the local council level, Philippines through passing the legislation for declaration of the state of imminent disaster and Mexico utilising the established network of IFRC and local government have developed custom-tailored plans at the local level for effectively reducing the impacts of anticipated heat waves.

The evaluation of these plans is crucial for enhancing their reach and effectiveness further especially for the most vulnerable people. The key indicator to be considered while evaluating the effectiveness of the plan is the number of vulnerable people it covers. The accurate and reliable mapping of vulnerable populations and the overlapping maps of heatwaves correlated with the impact of heatwaves at what temperatures on those vulnerable people should be developed to provide boundaries to the coverage of the plan. As the vulnerability is different for different individuals, the coverage should demonstrate a wide range of Sex Age Disability Disaggregated Data (SADDD). Poverty being the key indicator for vulnerability along with the other capitals like social, human, natural and physical described by the Sustainable livelihoods framework of DFID should be acknowledged while developing the action plans. In the region, children going to school, females, expecting mothers, labourers especially women and elderly people, and migrants are considered a priority as they are more vulnerable to heat waves. Thus, to evaluate a Heatwave Early Action Plan there have to be evaluation toolkits which use surveys as a method to gather the above information as feedback and further enhance the reach of the Heatwave Early Action Plan towards the vulnerable people. IFRC manual has a framework for the monitoring and evaluation of Forecast based Financing which provides feedback to improve and further localise the plans. This can be contextualised as per the requirements to reduce the anticipated impacts of heatwaves on people.

References

1. (2023). Technical Standards on Anticipatory Actions in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok.
2. (2024). Global Humanitarian Overview 2023. Global Humanitarian Overview.
3. Kotharkar, r. &. (2021). Review of heat wave studies and related urban policies in South Asia. Elsvier, 36.
4. (2024). State of the Climate in Asia 2023. Geneva: World Meteorological Organisation.
5. (2024). State of the Global Climate Report 2023. Geneva: World Meteorological Organisation, WMO No. 1347.

Bibliography

1. (2023). Technical Standards on Anticipatory Actions in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok.
2. (2024). Global Humanitarian Overview 2023. Global Humanitarian Overview.
3. He, B. J. (2024). Spatial and socio economic heterogenity of heat-related perception, awareness, knowledge and impacts for unbiased heat action plans. Cleaner Production,
4. Kotharkar, r. &. (2021). Review of heat wave studies and related urban policies in South Asia. Elsvier,
5. IFRC, Manual for Forecast Based Financing. https://manual.forecast-based-financing.org/en/
6. (2024). State of the Climate in Asia 2023. Geneva: World Meteorological Organisation.
7. (2024). State of the Global Climate Report 2023. Geneva: World Meteorologial Organisation, WMONo. 1347.
8. Adriana Mangones (2024). Navigating the “dog days:” Experience of the Mexican Red Cross during 2023 heatwaves, IFRC.
9. Save the Children (2024). Philippines: Heatwave forces hundreds of schools to shut with classes moved online to beat the heat.
10. Department of Health. Planning for extreme heat and heat waves. https://www.health.vic.gov.au/environmental-health/planning-for-extreme-heat-and-heatwaves

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.