Mihir R. Bhatt interviewed by Manish Patel, AIDMI, India

MP      What kind of heat data do NDMA and SDMAs release and what is the frequency – what are the issues there?

MRB   National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and State Disaster Management Authorities (SDMAs) share warning data. More and more, over the years, data is shared including data on extreme heat early warnings, loss of life, response needs, and a lot of guidance notes and frameworks such as how to make a Heat Action Plan. There are challenges in focusing the heat data on key user needs; up-to-date; and far more areas such as heat impact data can be shared with the public as we have learned over the years. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issues warnings based on the increase in average temperatures. Recently, they have also added the parameter of warm nights to their warnings. IMD did an excellent job of reducing the impact of extreme heat on the election process and voters. To enhance heatwave preparedness, the NDMA should prioritise the dissemination of user-focused, real-time heat impact data, including health impacts, economic losses, and vulnerability assessments, alongside existing warning and response information. This will enable more informed decision-making and targeted interventions by all, as we have learned.

MP      What are some of the most concerning things about these heat datasets?

MRB   First, the datasets are often scattered and therefore do not help build coherence that is useful for extreme heat action. Secondly, data is not harmonised with other departments such as agriculture or irrigation in a deeper way yet. Thirdly, the data is not updated from time-to-time or event to event to make data useful over time as we have learned for the 2023 and 2024 summers. Additionally, there is a discrepancy in recording heatwave deaths. Only cases of exertional heatstroke (which accounts for 10% of total deaths) are recorded, while cases of non-exertional heatstroke (which accounts for 90% of deaths) are not recorded. To improve data utility for heatwave action, the NDMA should lead the development of a centralised, co-created, interoperable heat information platform. This platform should integrate data from relevant sectors, and levels, including health, agriculture, and meteorology, ensuring data is standardised, updated regularly, and reflects a comprehensive understanding of heatwave impacts, including both exertional and non-exertional heatstroke mortality, as we have learned.

MP      What are some recent examples of extreme heat warning systems under disaster conditions?

MRB   India has one of the largest and multi-level multi-sector early warning systems covering extreme events such as Cyclone Tauktae. India Meteorological Department (IMD) leads this forecasting well. Tauktae was a turning point in terms of the warning system and how it can work and does work. This effectiveness in forecasting cyclones can also be applied to becoming more and more accurate in terms of extreme heat in India’s hill, delta, coastal, desert cities, and other areas. The IMD has also been prompt in issuing heatwave warnings. In April 2024, IMD had correctly predicted and warned that 2024 would breach all previous temperature records and emerge as the warmest year on record with a lot of heatwave days. Building on the success of cyclone warning systems, the IMD should prioritise developing equally robust, location-specific extreme heat early warning systems (EHEW system). These systems should provide timely, actionable alerts tailored to the unique vulnerabilities of India’s diverse geographic regions, including hill areas, deltas, coastal regions, and deserts, as we have learned.

MP      And what were the extreme heat damages like?

MRB   Damages per se have been hugely reduced due to the early evacuation of people, animals, and the protection of assets. India’s early warning system covers the Indian coastline well now and cyclone-related mortality has come down by over 90% by official sources. And cyclone Biparjoy had no death! And this is a point to celebrate. AIDMI’s work on innovation and research finds a reduction in the number of deaths is worth further study mainly in terms of loss and damage due to extreme heat in urban and rural areas. Extreme heat also has a detrimental impact on the economy and agriculture value chain. Farmers’ yields of various crops and their quality are adversely affected by the extreme heat. Similarly, the number of working hours lost in extreme heat causes a sharp reduction in the GDP. Massive load shedding during the hot summer months also leads to a decrease in productivity. The ILO also estimated that by 2023, India will lose out on approximately 5% of its GDP due to the challenges of excessive heat. (under 1.5OC global warming scenario). Recognising the significant economic and agricultural impacts of extreme heat, the National Disaster Management Authority should collaborate with research institutions like AIDMI and many others to quantify heat-related losses. This data will be crucial for advocating for increased investment in heatwave preparedness and adaptation measures.

MP      Would it be any less if we had extreme heat warnings in time?

MRB   Yes. Timeliness of early warning and targeting the last mile and last person will help maintain a zero death trend not only in cyclone hazards but also can be achieved in floods and heatwaves in 2025. Timeliness of warnings and adequate preparedness measures will also help in shielding against the loss and damage of heatwaves on the various sectors of the economy. To achieve a zero-death trend for heatwaves, the National Disaster Management Authority should prioritise the timely dissemination of extreme heat warnings, ensuring they reach vulnerable communities and individuals. This requires strengthening last-mile communication channels and implementing targeted preparedness measures.

MP      Do we have enough warning systems for flooding or landslides – how effective are they?

MRB   IMD is doing a good job on early flood warnings in terms of the level of flooding, the area that will be flooded, and time. What is needed is an anticipatory warning to individuals and assets at risk of flooding. More work on this is coming up in Kerala, Bihar, and Assam at the state level, AIDMI has learned. In terms of landslides, scientists at the Geological Survey of India (GSI), a scientific agency established under the Ministry of Mines to conduct geological surveys and studies of India, in collaboration with the British Geological Survey, have been evaluating a prototype to predict landslides in the Darjeeling district of West Bengal and the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu. If the model proves successful, it is likely to be deployed in some parts of India as early as 2025. To enhance flood warning effectiveness, the IMD should collaborate with state governments and city authorities to develop and implement anticipatory warning systems that is not only up-to-date but ahead of the rest of the world. These systems should provide actionable information to at-risk individuals and communities, enabling timely evacuation and asset protection.

MP      What groups are the most vulnerable and Are there structures of compensation?

MRB   AIDMI has learned that a direct focus on women; children; Adivasi, minorities, and migrant labour on early warning, preparedness investment, and recovery is needed. AIDMI is demanding a revision of compensation in terms of the amount of money, time, schedule, and conditionality to reach the target individual and achieve the targeted impact. Recognising the disproportionate impact of disasters on vulnerable groups, the National Disaster Management Authority should prioritise these groups in all aspects of disaster risk reduction. This includes tailoring early warnings, increasing preparedness investments, and revising compensation structures to ensure timely and equitable support reaches those most in need.

MP      What is the law and policy situation around extreme heat risk and disaster management?

MRB   We have learned that India has a remarkable National Disaster Management Act (recently updated) which is becoming more and more effective. For example, as per the Act, all states of India have a disaster management plan. As per the Act India’s Finance Commission has allocated US$ 28.6 billion for the central and state governments for the next five years but it is yet to be detailed out how this money will be spent, most specifically for extreme heat. So we have a plan and a budget for it to manage disasters including extreme heat if we contextualise the budget as soon as possible. As of now, Heatwave is not notified as a disaster in the 12 disasters eligible for mitigation and relief under the National and State Disaster Risk Management Funds (N/SDRMFs). It is crucial to review this decision through an expert committee based on the emerging science and experience of implementing Heat Action Plans (HAPs). To ensure adequate funding for heatwave risk reduction, the Ministry of Home Affairs should explicitly designate heatwaves as a disaster eligible for mitigation and relief funding under the National and State Disaster Risk Management Funds. This will enable the targeted allocation of resources and support the implementation of Heat Action Plans.

MP      What are the two most important things that need to be done in extremely heated urban areas such as Delhi?

MRB         AIDMI’s recent work on extreme heat in cities across India shows that each city or town must have a City Disaster Management Plan with extreme heat actions included in it. This is one. And two, AIDMI work has found that each plan must now have suitable and sustainable budget allocations to take local effective cooling actions – adaptation and mitigation – in partnership with citizens. Integrate heat resilience into urban planning and development policies, with a focus on reducing urban heat island effects and improving thermal comfort in low-income neighbourhoods and informal settlements. This may include measures such as increasing green spaces, using cool pavements and roofs, and improving building insulation and ventilation. To enhance heat resilience in urban areas like Delhi, municipal corporations should develop and implement city-specific Heat Action Plans integrated into comprehensive City Disaster Management Plans. These plans must include dedicated budget allocations for sustainable cooling measures, prioritising low-income and informal settlements, as we have learned.