By K. S. Hosalikar, Former Head, Surface Instrument Div, IMD Pune; Rajib Chattopadhyay, IITM Pune; and Ananya Karmakar, CRS, IMD Pune, India

According to the AR6 of IPCC, human-caused climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heatwaves since the 1950s and additional warming will further increase their frequency, duration and intensity. With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to become larger. Heatwaves amplify the impact of drought, increase wildfire behavior, hazardous smoke, water insecurity, power shortages and agricultural losses, which cause significant damage to communities around the world.

As we all know now that globally the year 2024 was the warmest year in the 175-year observational records so far (Ref: State of Climate Report 2024 by WMO) and in same line for India; the annual mean surface air temperature averaged during 2024 was observed to be +0.65°C above the long-term average (Period 1991-2020), marking 2024 the warmest year since nationwide records began in 1901. (Annual Climate Summary 2024, by IMD). So, under these circumstances, to make the existing EWS for Heatwaves in India more effective, the following key areas need to be further focused. Of course, many of the things are already in process and available. May be requires further fine-tuning and shaping.

1. At present, in the country, IMD issues the HW alerts as and when needed as per its standard operating procedure (SoP) with sufficiently good lead time. Alongside it also issues other HW related products like Heat Index, Discomfort Index, Excess Heat Factor Index few more seamlessly using text, GIS graphics, Charts etc using all digital platforms like websites, SMN, Apps etc.
2. In addition to if AI is used for generation and dissemination in highly customised ways for various sectors like health, agricultural, power, water, disaster management, etc for more effective and quick decision-making process by these sectors for effective mitigation. This will add value to process.
3. The platforms like Chat-GPT can be brought in, which will enable the concern sectors/customer to raise the query about HW alerts that will be answered immediately in auto mode. Again, this will further improve the understanding and confidence-building among the users.
4. As mentioned above that HW are highly likely to increase in its frequency, duration and intensity; more surface meteorological observations would be required. May be in a city, it could be at every 3-5 km and other places 5-10kms especially in the HW prone areas. These observations would be real time and accessible to all stake holders on a digital platform.
5. New areas of HW are emerging in the country; needs to be overseen very carefully especially in absence of earlier such records. Response of local administration and people is also critical here.
6. R&D in HW science is a continuous process and new predictions tools, models are coming up. Integrated approach at global and regional levels in terms of technology, hand-holdings, infra support, would be great.
7. Other than the land-based HW, we are also experiencing the marine HWs, that again will require more observations over the seas. A better understanding of it will help in minimising the impacts on coastal communities, fishing, severe weather, and global ocean circulation patterns.
8. HW’s severity is socio-economically biassed, as seen earlier. HWs often target poor and vulnerable unorganised sectors like people without proper infrastructure, hawkers, construction workers, and women. The HW Alert system must address these sectors and other layers below in the society using some out of box ideas. Like we can have extension workers, NGOs, a battery of trained students, flyers at construction sites, coastal areas with effective local PA systems, provision of temporary shelters, drinking water points in the city, etc.
9. The Summer Outlook provided by IMD along with HW related information needs to be more intensely brainstormed sector-wise for improved understanding from both the sides.
10. Effective EWS also include response of the community and the stake holders and so make it more effective, the HW related inputs must go into both long-term and short-term planning by the administration / stake holders for the given place in advance.
11. IMD has recently launched the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) -India. It’s a programme to further establish a structured multi-point interaction and exchange of climate information among the various central, state ministries, agencies, academia, industries, media, and other stakeholders. HW in the country are many times widespread and for a longer duration and under such circumstances like during cyclones, NFCS will be especially useful framework. NFCS will also address the climate/weather hazards in the country.
12. New initiatives in HW programme can be brought in through R&D in observation techniques, predictions with impact, dissemination, and feedback from the general public and stakeholders.
13. Since HW can also trigger the Forest Fires, causing threats to wildlife, affecting the ecosystems. So, the concerned agencies need this critical inf.
14. To create more awareness, all the central, state government agencies, and other industries/organisations can port IMD’s HW and other severe weather warnings over their official websites for their employees to see regularly. This will further create understanding and mitigation sensitivity. Involve maximum NGOs.
15. Innovative technologies can come to the rescue, like, mobile embedded with temperature sensors will be taking auto observations continuously and sending it to central servers. Industries participation would be needed.
16. Awareness is key and so we need more effective graphics, slogans, flyers, workshops, seminars, and awards too. Innovation has a big opportunity here.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.