By Jagan Chapagain, Chief Executive Officer and Secretary General of the IFRC, Geneva, Switzerland

On behalf of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), I congratulate the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on its 150th anniversary. IMD has been a cornerstone of India’s safety, leveraging weather science to protect lives. This milestone underscores the critical importance of robust scientific institutions in our collective efforts towards “Local Action, Global Reach of Early Warnings for All.”

While cyclones and floods often capture headlines, extreme heat operates with a stealth that belies its devastating impact. It is the “silent assassin of climate change.”  2024 was the hottest year on record; 2023 only briefly held the record.  Annually, an estimated 489,000 people die from heat-related causes, 45% in Asia. The IFRC’s Climate Centre estimated that in a single year, over 60% of the world’s population suffers under extreme heat, at least for a few days.

And these figures, though alarming, are likely underestimates, as many heat-related deaths are attributed to other conditions. The economic toll is also immense, with losses up to 6.7% of GDP in developing nations.

The escalating climate crisis dramatically increases the probability of mass fatality heat disasters, a challenge not confined by season or hemisphere. From record summers in South America and Australia to unprecedented March 2024 school closures in South Sudan due to temperatures exceeding 42°C, human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and intense.

At IFRC, we witness this daily. Our commitment to the “Early Warnings for All” (EW4All) initiative is steadfast; we co-lead its crucial pillar on “Preparedness to Respond,” aiming to protect everyone by 2027. But warnings must catalyse early, anticipatory action – translating forecasts into accessible, empowering information.

This is where “local action” becomes paramount. The IFRC network, with 191 National Societies, is deeply embedded in communities. In the Asia Pacific, this work expands: active Early Action Protocols (EAPs) for heatwaves are operational in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Last year, the Bangladeshi EAP activation targeted 123,000 vulnerable people. Additional simplified Early Action Protocols (sEAPs) are developing in Thailand (heat-pollution) and Pakistan, while nations like the Maldives and Sri Lanka advance sEAPs for climate-health issues like dengue. IFRC is also active in the Southeast Asia Heat Health Forum.

Our work in Nepal provides a concrete example. To protect its communities, the Nepal Red Cross Society, with IFRC and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre support, scientifically identified a 38°C ‘heat threshold’ for the city of Nepalgunj. This specific temperature was pinpointed by analysing 24 years of local climate data as the point at which heat transitions to an extreme level, triggering alerts and protective measures. Such localised thresholds are vital because they form the scientific basis for early actions.

Shining a light on this pervasive threat is vital. City heat action plans, like Nepalgunj’s and those in Ahmedabad and Karachi, are crucial. They identify vulnerable groups, establish action triggers and champion simple solutions like market shades and local tree planting.

Accessible science and forecasts save lives. This includes media broadcasts, direct outreach like Australia’s Telecross REDi programme, and anticipatory actions such as Vietnam Red Cross’s mobile cooling centres or Spain’s proactive lifeguard rostering. Local volunteers, like those in Bangladesh teaching heat first-aid, are trusted community messengers.

As IMD embarks on its next 150 years, its role is ever more critical. The journey requires intensified collaboration between meteorological services, humanitarians, governments, academia, and communities. Though the future seems daunting, with anticipation, local investment, and global commitment to early warnings, we can mitigate extreme heat’s worst impacts.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of AIDMI.